The stock market is likely to continue with its positive momentum but may face bouts of profit-booking amid lofty valuations in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. The trading sentiment will be guided mostly by global trends in absence of major domestic events, they said. Markets would remain closed on Friday for 'Ganesh Chaturthi'.
Sliding for the fifth straight session, the rupee fell 3 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.06 against the US dollar on Thursday amid a strong greenback overseas and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 78.92 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 78.90 and a low of 79.07. It finally settled at 79.06, down 3 paise over its previous close of 79.03.
Among the new entries, the largest by market capitalisation are LIC, Avenue Supermarts (DMart), Adani Green Energy, Zomato and Jio Financial Services.
Notwithstanding record revenues in certain media sectors like film exhibition in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2), the operational performance of the broadcasting business remained subdued. Zee Entertainment Enterprises and Sun TV are expected to experience a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline in advertising (ad) revenues during this period. Conversely, box office (BO) collections are anticipated to exceed Rs 3,000 crore in the quarter, propelled by a series of successful movie releases.
The last batch of quarterly earnings, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors will guide the equity market movement in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Volatility may continue amid investors' cautious approach in the election season. Markets will remain closed on Monday due to the fifth phase of the Lok Sabha elections in Mumbai.
With the absence of any major immediate domestic trigger in sight, investors would focus on global trends and trading activity of foreign investors for further cues in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the market. "This week is a truncated one with no major triggers expected. However, we anticipate sector-specific movements amid budget-related buzz.
'Though one cannot paint the entire microcap basket with the same brush, investors need to be careful now as to what they're buying.'
Lower crude oil prices and a rally in domestic equities restricted the losses to some extent, forex dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic currency opened weak at 79.50 per dollar.
The ratio of market capitalisation to gross domestic product (GDP) in India remains elevated despite the recent correction in the equities markets. It was 147.5 per cent on December 3, 56 per cent higher than the 10-year average of 94 per cent. The current ratio is slightly lower than the all-time high ratio of 154 per cent at the end of September this year.
Stocks of electronics manufacturing services companies have been major outperformers, with four of the top eight listed majors by market capitalisation doubling their value over the past 12 months. The biggest gainer in this space has been the market leader, Dixon Technologies (India), which is up nearly threefold.
'Some risks to this market rally include inflation, erratic weather conditions, rising crude prices, slowing global growth and the resultant impact on domestic exports, escalation in geopolitical tensions.'
Samsung is losing the race in India's premium smartphone market as rival Apple continues to increase its dominance in the segment, driven by robust iPhone sales and festival season discounts. Shortly after Apple CEO Tim Cook announced an all-time revenue record in India yet again for the September quarter, the company recorded its best-ever quarter of shipments at four million units in the third quarter of calendar year 2024 (Q3CY24), led by the iPhone 15 and iPhone 13, according to a report by the International Data Corporation (IDC).
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is the biggest event that would drive sentiments in the domestic stock market this week, besides a host of macroeconomic data from the global front and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The Indian equity market had an exceptional last week, with both the Nifty and Sensex hitting their all-time high levels on Thursday.
'He asserted in his usual jovial style that he was not an MBA like his audience at IIM-Ahmedabad but perhaps had an even better business degree: MBB'. 'He went on to explain to his perplexed, blue chip B-School audience that MBB stood for "Marwadi by birth"!' Shivanand Kanavi salutes Shashi Ruia, co-founder of the Essar group who passed into the ages on November 25, 2024 in Mumbai.
UltraTech Cement's announcement that it would snap up a controlling stake in India Cements may only be a sign of more to come. In the wake of one of the country's most expensive deals in recent times, cement majors may slug it out to add smaller firms from the region to their portfolio. UltraTech's buy is the latest in the four deals the southern market has seen in less than a year, with Adani Cement being the other buyer.
Stocks of public sector companies, especially the oil refining and marketing companies (OMCs) - Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) - logged gains on Tuesday in a weak market. While the Nifty lost nearly 1 per cent in trade on Tuesday, the Nifty CPSE index - a gauge of performance of central public sector enterprises on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) - gained over 3 per cent in intra-day trade. The rally in PSU stocks comes on the back of the BPCL chairman, Arun Kumar Singh suggesting in the company's annual general meeting (AGM) on Monday that the government intends to complete the divestment process in the OMC by March 2022.
Before framing regulations to curb 'misleading' messages and stock recommendations by finfluencers (a portmanteau of the phrase 'financial influencers'), the market regulator plans to put in place some 'building blocks' to ensure smooth enforcement. Madhabi Puri Buch, chairperson of Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), is of the view that the 'traditional approach may not work' to rein in finfluencers. "There are many interlinked pieces in our regulations - investment advisor regulations, research analyst regulations, the fact that we don't have algorithmic (algo)-related regulations, what brokers are permitted to do, and what is incidental advice.
As many as 5,532 complaints were received by the regulator in January, an 80 per cent increase over the number of complaints filed in the previous month.
Despite near-term headwinds of rising input costs and the possibility of lower demand for products as Covid dented rural & urban India, and impacts both production & consumption, analysts remain bullish on stocks of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies and expect the index to relatively outperform its peers in the second half of fiscal 2021-22 (FY22). In the past one year, prices of key commodities such as groundnut oil, mustard oil, Vanaspati, soya oil, sunflower oil and palm oil have shot up in the range of 20 per cent to 60 per cent, data show. The FMCG sector macros in this backdrop, according to analysts, have further deteriorated because of weakness in consumer demand and likely margin pressure due to elevated crude oil, palm oil and global food prices.
The divestment process, however, will not be an easy affair as there are multiple stakeholders, including the employee unions, whose concerns will have to be addressed.
Bolstered by an impressive performance in the global specialty business and outstanding results in the Indian market, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, the largest pharmaceutical (pharma) company in the country, showcased a strong performance in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24).
The rupee depreciated 39 paise to an all-time low of 82.69 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday as elevated crude oil prices and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and firm American currency sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 82.68 against the greenback, then slipped further to 82.69, registering a fall of 39 paise over its previous close.
From its recent lows, the stock of consumer major Marico is up 7 per cent on the back of a better-than-expected June quarter performance and robust outlook. In a pre-quarter update, the management indicated that domestic volume growth should witness an improvement in FY25, while other segments (growth portfolio, international business) too would see traction going ahead. The near-term trigger is strong sales and operating performance for Q1FY25.
There could be near-term margin pressures for lifestyle accessories major Titan Company. Even as the company maintains its growth outlook over the medium term, it has revised its margin guidance for the jewellery segment downwards. The company has adjusted its medium-term margin guidance to 12 per cent from the previous range of 12-13 per cent.
As the results season kicks in, the quarterly earnings numbers of several blue-chip firms -- such as Infosys and Reliance Industries -- along with global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, will determine equity market movement in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic WPI inflation data for June -- scheduled to be announced on Monday -- will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.
The stock of Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (AHEL), India's largest listed health care services company, fell 4.6 per cent on Monday (April 29) and slipped another 0.34 per cent to close at Rs 5,946.20 on Tuesday (April 30). The share declined due to a lower valuation for subsidiary Apollo HealthCo (AHL) and an aggressive valuation for Keimed, a promoter-owned drug wholesaler that is merging with AHL.
The outflows could be a result of a mix of factors led by the underperformance of some of the larger funds amid elevated return expectations.
The stock of Voltas, the country's largest room air- conditioner (RAC) maker, is up 22 per cent in the past three months. Robust demand on the back of a sweltering summer, distribution expansion, slew of launches and backward integration are expected to forge a good operating performance for the company. In the core RAC segment, there are multiple triggers for the company.
The weak April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) results of the largest listed specialty chemical maker, SRF, and multiple global headwinds for the sector are expected to weigh on the prospects of Indian specialty chemical companies in 2023-24 (FY24). Stocks in the sector (down 7-18 per cent) have underperformed the benchmarks (up over 10 per cent) in the past three months, and given the multiple challenges, the trend is likely to continue. Kotak Institutional Equities expects a very weak quarter (Q1FY24) for the sector due to destocking, demand weakness across certain critical end-use industries, and price erosion amid intense competition from Chinese suppliers.
India's largest two-wheeler maker by volume - Hero MotoCorp (Hero) - posted a better-than-expected operating performance in the January-March (fourth quarter, or Q4) quarter of 2022-23 (FY23). Riding on higher average selling prices which were up 5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and volume growth of 7 per cent, the company registered a 12 per cent growth in revenue to Rs 8,306 crore. The company sold 127,000 units in the quarter, largely driven by domestic sales which were up 11.6 per cent, while exports saw a sharp fall of 57 per cent over the year-ago quarter.
Sensex to hit record high in 2015, but analysts cut forecast
In an online chat with readers overseas consultant NNS Chandra offered advice.
Automobile manufacturers are likely to report strong numbers for the September quarter of Financial Year 2023-24 (Q2 FY24), riding on growth across segments and offset by a marginal drop in overall two-wheeler (2W) volumes. Higher average selling price (ASP) year-on-year (YoY), which was necessitated by price hikes taken by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and an improved product mix will also aid revenues and margins. Moreover, commodity prices are down on a YoY basis, leading to higher margins in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda).
Worries related to the Iran-Israel conflict, quarterly earnings and foreign investors' trading activity are the key factors that would dictate stock markets this week, analysts said. Besides, trends in Brent crude oil and movement of the rupee against the dollar will also be crucial factors. This week will be crucial for the market amid ongoing worries about the conflict between Iran and Israel, said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Domestic macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide market sentiments this week, analysts said. After a record rally, markets may face volatile trends this week amid elevated valuations and investors would also keep a track of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar movement for further cues. "Potential volatility in the stock market is anticipated this week. Elevated valuations remain a concern, with investors now focusing on monsoon progress and its impact on the rural economy.
Hero MotoCorp, a major player in the two-wheeler market, has seen a 9 per cent rise in its stock since the beginning of the month. This increase, driven by the largest motorcycle company by volume, is attributed to expectations of a revival in rural sales due to normal monsoons, government measures to boost consumption, recent market share gains, and a large valuation discount compared to peers. In the near term, the company's volume performance and growth trajectory, particularly in rural markets and entry-level segments, are expected to be key drivers.
Following a strong performance in the 2022-23 January-March quarter, publicly listed paint industry giants displayed a mixed performance in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter. While Berger Paints India outperformed its peers and reported results in line with expectations, market leader Asian Paints and Kansai Nerolac Paints fell slightly short of expectations.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended with gains on Wednesday, extending the previous day rally amid lower level of inflation on domestic front and better-than-expected inflation readings from the US. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 144.61 points or 0.23 per cent to settle at 62,677.91. During the day, it jumped 301.81 points or 0.48 per cent to 62,835.11.
'Invest only in stocks of those companies that deliver on earnings and there is earnings visibility too for the next few quarters.'
Quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and other global trends will be the major driving factors for determining movement in the domestic equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Besides, factors like trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also influence trading.
